Gold Price. Going Up or Down?
Posted On Wednesday, April 2, 2008 at at 9:50 AM by Finance AnalysisGold is trading much weaker in New York Tuesday morning, as the precious metals complex is caught up in another major fund liquidation involving virtually all commodities.
Gold opened with major losses on the Comex, after plunging to $897/oz at the London AM Fix, and at 10:13 am the nearby June contract was trading at $892.20/oz, down $29.30 from Monday's settlement price. After opening at $903/oz, gold was quickly sold down to a low of $888.50/oz, but it has managed to recover.
Where is gold price heading to from here?
If you have gold futures position, you may be panic, and eager to sell off all your gold positions just in case gold price goes lower. But if you has done so, you might be selling at the low, and you will regret very soon.
As a trader, it is not rare for market to go against you, actually it happens me a lot of time, and I still exit from the trade with a profit. When market goes against you, don't panic, use all the brain power in your head to analyse the situation, and execute the next step (buy more, cut loss or do nothing).
In my view, the two main drivers for rising gold are Falling USD and Rising crude oil price
Click here for More
Source: Metal Trading
Singapore Market
Posted On Thursday, March 27, 2008 at at 2:40 PM by Finance AnalysisSingapore: Singapore market declined following a two day rally. Due to a lack of fresh buying leads, investors chose to lock in profits and wait at the sideline. This is despite the unexpected 10% increase in February factory output. Cues are still heavily dependent on US economic data. FTSE-STI down 4.97 or 0.2% to close at 2,995.22 points. Trading volume was 1.47 billion shares valued at S$1.57 billion and losers outnumbered gainers 370 to 253. Commodities supplier Olam International Ltd suffered a 14.1% lost to S$1.95 after its rating was cut to “sell” from “neutral” by Merrill Lynch.
Wall Street: US market retreated after pessimistic numbers on February’s durable goods orders. The Commerce Department released a 1.7% dip in last month’s order for durable goods, which is indicative on business spending and consumer demand. This is its second consecutive shrink. Adding to worries, the Commerce Department also announced that sales of new homes slumped 1.8% in February, which dragged down sales for the fourth straight month to a 13-year low. Dow Jones slipped 109.74 or
0.9% to 12,422.86 points and Nasdaq dropped 16.69 or 0.7% to close at 2,324.36 points. However, crude oil soared US$4.58 to close at US$105.80 per barrel on NYMEX.
Outlook: The mini-rally that started on Monday and moved the benchmark STI to the 3,000 level is likely to end earlier than our expectation. We have expected the market to rally towards the end of the week on expectation of better Singapore manufacturing number. True, the index for industrial productions has registered another month of double-digit growth, by 10% in February 2008 after growing 12.8% in January (see Chart). However, investors chose to remain at the sidelines pending further development in the US. Thus, the worst-than-expected US durable orders are likely to lead to some profit taking today. The US economy is probably in a recession now. However, the Singapore economy is expected to remain healthy, shown by the latest manufacturing numbers. With the backing of the Singapore economy, buy on weakness will still be the preferred investment strategy.
Source: WestComb
Martket News - Swiber, Home Sales
Posted On Wednesday, March 19, 2008 at at 2:15 PM by Finance AnalysisHome Sales News
New home sales slump to 9-month low in Feb. The number of new homes sold by developers dropped to just 170 units in February - the lowest since the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) began releasing monthly sales data in June 2007. And CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho estimates that new home sales could be just 700-800 units for the first quarter of 2008 - even lower than the 894 units sold in the fourth quarter during the Asian financial crisis in 1997. In an analysis of the data released yesterday, Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) said, however, that prices were comparatively stable. The firm's head of research (South-east Asia) Chua Yang Liang said that using the 'lowest median prices' category of the URA data, median prices declined 0.7% for units sold in the Core Central Region (CCR) and 5% in the Outside Central Region (OCR) on a month-on-month basis. For units sold in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), the lowest median price increased 14.2% from $765 psf in January to $874 psf in February.
Swiber
Swiber Holdings announced on Sunday night that it was awarded a LOI from CUEL Thailand for offshore installation work (platforms, jackets, topsides and pipelines) in the Gulf of Thai. The contract is tenable for five years and estimated to be worth US$50 p.a. The contract is scheduled to start in 1Q09.
Swiber has shown impressive YTD win of US$742m boosting order book to about US$1bn. This is the first long-term contract that Swiber wins after Brunei Shell project of about US$200m which will end in 2009. We believe more of such long-term contracts will provide a good mix for Swiber's order book and confidence in earnings visibility. Our FY08 revenue forecasts for FY08 is 90% backed by orders while FY09 is
already 45% secured.
Source: DBS Vickers
Market News - STI
Posted On Tuesday, March 18, 2008 at at 2:31 PM by Finance AnalysisInvestors should continue to stay defensive heading into 2Q. Our view that the STI has a downward bias to 2530-2650 remains intact. While minor oversold bounces do occur, it’s still a sell-into-strength market.
The clearest indication came last week when the FED’s USD200bil injection into credit markets triggered a 180pts gain from Tuesday’s low of 2794 to Wednesday’s high of 2976 that was all given back by Thursday.
Defensive plays such as telecom (SingTel, StarHub and M1) and consumer staples (SPH, SMRT, SingPost) should hold up well in coming weeks. Outside of these defensive stocks, other index heavyweights are likely to pull the STI lower towards 2530-2650.
The Singapore economy saw earnings rise but productivity dips for first time in six years. Labour productivity slipped 0.9% in 2007 while real earnings rose 4%. Jobless rate is down to a decade low of 1.6%.
Source: DBS Vickers
(Click here to Read More...)
Reason Why STI Rose today
Posted On Thursday, March 13, 2008 at at 12:25 AM by Finance AnalysisIs the credit crunch over? News on Tuesday of the Federal Reserve pumping $200 billion of Treasurys into the market sent stocks soaring.
But several investing experts said that even if stocks rally again Wednesday, you shouldn't start popping champagne corks.
"There is the hope that the credit crunch is over but it's not founded in reality," said Haag Sherman, managing director with Salient Partners, a Houston-based investment firm and subsidiary of Sanders Morris Harris.
As stocks started moving higher Tuesday, Sherman said he thought many investors with bearish bets were forced to buy - or 'cover' their positions - so they could lock-in gains or minimize losses. But investors need to be selective.
Source: CNN
