AIO Finance Analysis

1 Ms Mirriam MacWilliams does not subscribe to the belief of investing in stocks with falling prices or buying them at their rock-bottom prices. It is the worst time to buy because you have no idea why the prices are falling, she said. Only fund managers are able to do that because of the sheer number of stocks they control.

2 Never rush in to buy the stocks. “I prefer the stocks to give me a
direction; once I have a direction, I apply entry and exit parameters,” she advised. “Always have a trading plan.”

3 Take note of the time horizon or percentage move on the stock. For example, if you are in a three-week trade window period, you may want to aim for a 10-per-cent move on the stock. If the window period is around three or four days, you would expect the stock to move
about 5 per cent.
4 She has this advice for short-term investors: “You just need to
understand certain criteria in the US stock market such as the price movement of the stock and the number of the stocks. “As long as you understand the criteria for investing, you don’t have to get so worried
about economic fluctuations.” Long-term investors looking at a window period of one to two years should “keep their eyes on the pulse of the
interest rates in the US”.

5 Be a consistent trader. Do something over and over again that yields you good return and eliminate all the pitfalls for that risk.

6 All-time high prices are risky. Do not get too emotional when prices escalate or decline.

7 Know that fund managers will go in the opposite direction of the masses. When the market is bullish and everyone is getting in, they are getting out, and vice versa.

Source: MyPaper

The heavy correction has punished a lot of stocks, but one of those most heavily punished is Allco REIT. It has fallen more than 50% from $1.40 in May 06 to $0.67 currently. As such, I am placing Allco REIT on the stock alert with a buy at $0.67 at 50% below NAV.
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Source: Extraordinary Profits

Another stock we saw was GEMSTV. We expect to see it rally and some brokers give a high target price for it. We might see it break $0.415.
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Source: Steady Bull

Asian stocks are likely to fall after a late downturn on Wall Street, and amid jitters over Japanese corporate earnings, as several companies, including Sony Corp report on Thursday.

Markets like India, which slid on uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve's next move, could rebound after the Fed cut rates by 0.5 percent following last week's emergency 0.75 percent cut.

Australian shares set the tone for Asia, sinking as much as 2 percent in early trade on Thursday, led down by banks and the market's biggest retailer, Woolworths Ltd.

In Japan, investors knocked banks on Wednesday after reports that Mizuho Financial Group might inject an additional $1.9 billion into its unit Mizuho Securities to shore up the brokerage hit by bad subprime investments. Sharp falls for key Hong Kong and Taiwanese stocks, like Sinopec and UMC, on Wall Street pointed to weaker openings for Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Asian stocks listed on Wall Street .BKAS fell 0.8 percent, while MSCI's measure of Asian stocks excluding Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS slid 1.86 percent.

As expected, FED cut its rates again ~ FED funds rate to 3% and Discount rate to 3.5%. Stock rallied as soon as FED announced they cut its rates but the rally was short lived.

Is it because wall streets has rallied for the past 2 days and price already factor in the rate cuts? Or maybe jobless rate (will be announced on Friday)will give us a hint that recession is on sight????

Shares of Singapore Petroleum (SPC) rose as much as 3.8 percent to S$6.33 with 377,000 shares traded a dy after the firm said it had doubled its net profit in the fourth-quarter.

Singapore Petroleum Corporation just delivered another good set of earnings. Its been a very fruitful dividend stock for me. Overall, I am getting a yield of 13% on this investment this year. This goes to show that:

• The business is important
• The company operation is important
• The cashflow is important
• Valuation / Getting the right price is important.

Goldman tells investors to sell S'pore banks

Call comes after key index drops 22 per cent from Oct peak. Investors should sell shares of Singapore's DBS Group Holdings Ltd and its two rivals on expectation the banks' earnings growth will moderate, Goldman Sachs Group Inc said.

It's 'time to take profit, not bottom fish' after the city-state's lenders have fallen about 20 per cent from late last year, Goldman's Singapore-based analyst Tan Bok Chuan said in a report dated Jan 27.
The analyst made his recommendation after the FTSE Strait Times Financials Index, whose 55 members include DBS, United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB) and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC), Singapore's three banks, dropped 22 per cent from a peak in October.
Any share price gains triggered by interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve would present selling opportunities, he said.

'While the macro outlook for Singapore remains resilient despite an expected mild US recession, we are less sanguine on the Singapore banks' earnings outlook,' Mr Tan said.

Yesterday, DBS closed 88 cents or 4.6 per cent down to S$18.06. UOB fell 58 cents or 3.2 per cent to S$17.50, while OCBC fell 20 cents or 2.6 per cent to S$7.60.

The FTSE Strait Times Financials Index fell 3.3 per cent yesterday.
Goldman is keeping a 'neutral' call on the city's three banks.
Mr Tan said declines to S$14.50 for DBS and S$15.50 for UOB would represent buying opportunities.

Investors should buy OCBC when it falls to S$6.80, he added.
Of the three banks, OCBC, owner of Singapore's biggest life insurer, is the city-state's 'most defensive' banking stock, Mr Tan said.

'We like OCBC for its defensive qualities: adequate CDO (collateralised debt obligation) provisions in our view with minimal exposure to the US monoline bond insurers,' Mr Tan said in a report.

OCBC said in November last year that it took a S$221 million 'allowance', or charge, on its asset- backed securities, writing down the value of the investments linked to US sub-prime mortgages to S$48 million as of Sept 30.

The bank has a CDO portfolio of S$641 million.
CDOs are securities that pool loans, bonds or credit- default swaps and use the income to pay investors.

The securities are divided into different parts of varying risk and return.
OCBC is also benefiting from declining interbank loan rates in Singapore, which means the cost of funding its loans is shrinking, Mr Tan said.

Singapore's three- month interbank rate fell to a three-year low on Jan 25, 6.25 basis points to 1.5625 per cent yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

The bank may report net income of S$2.11 billion for 2007, 13 per cent higher than Goldman's earlier forecast, Mr Tan said.
Profit may fall to S$1.98 billion this year, still 14 per cent more than his previous estimate, Mr Tan said.

DBS, South-east Asia's biggest bank, is the 'most at risk operationally', while UOB, Goldman's least favoured of the three Singapore lenders, 'continues to struggle to grow its regional franchise', the Goldman analyst said.

Source: Bloomberg

Wee Hur Holdings

Shares of construction firm Wee Hur Holdings opened at S$0.30 on Wednesday, 20 percent above its initial public offering price of S$0.25 per share.

Upon opening, its shares had further risen to S$0.31 -- 24 percent above the IPO price. The company, which raised S$20.9 million at its IPO, plans to use the proceeds to fund acquisitions and take up larger contract projects.

Congrats to all who have got its IPO. Finally saw an IPO turning green. I hope many other IPO will share it success.

Source: Reuters

China Sky

Shares of China Sky Chemical Fibre rose as much as 9.6 percent to S$1.48 with 1 million shares traded after the nylon fibre manufacturer said it has agreed to acquire Qingdao ZhongDa Chemical Fibre for RMB450 million.
The Singapore-listed Chinese firm will pay 60 percent of the amount in cash, and the remaining 40 percent through the issue of 21 million new ordinary shares for between S$1.70 and $2.00 per share.

BBR Holdings

Shares of BBR Holdings rose as much as 14.3 percent to S$0.08 with 2.4 million shares traded after the firm said it secured a S$95.3 million contract to build an office complex.
The two 12-storey tower blocks in western Singapore are expected to be completed by August 2009, the firm said in a statement on Monday.
Source: Reuters

The Bulls will not surrender. At least for the time being.

Hang Seng Index: 24053.61 (-1068.76)
Nikkei Index: 13087.91 (-541.25)
ST Index: 3041.06 (-118.42)

Well, everyone might think that I am being cynical based on the ironic results we had in the Asian session today. Hang on. Allow me to elaborate.

If you all had been observant enough, volume was relatively thin today, especially ST Index with only 1.3 bln trade volume done, a turnover of approximately $1.6 bln. What does this signify ? Bears are exhausted. Is it a deliberate move by the BBs to push down the markets so that they can buy cheap? I won't rule out this possibility but I might be wrong too.

Anyway, let's move on. Dow Jones is looking good now and it seems like a victory day for the bulls once more as investors are anticipating a 0.5% basis point cut from the Fed, not forgetting Europe had also recovered from a huge gap down following a disappointing Dow's performance yesterday.

Rule of Thumb:

Never trust futures. They are only indicative, lagging and not definite. Can only be taken as reference. Markets are dynamic creatures, like a chameleon. Any slight broadcast of news would move the futures and no one is able to predict what will happen next, unless you are GOD.

I firmly believe that markets will make another U-turn tomorrow, with the contest between the Bulls and Bears continues. But this time the Bulls will triumph. Well, at least for another two days, prior to the much awaited Federal meeting.

Oh ya, one more time i forgot to mention. Did I ever mention Gold was the current safest bet ? I think i did. It's currently trading at $927 an ounce, up from a comparative value of about $874 an ounce traded, mentioned on 23th Jan's post. If you are a Gold futures' expert, you will know what I mean.

Enough about Gold. If Dow really closes GREEN tonight, Yangzijiang will be a good buy. Cheers !!

I managed to read this chart from Investmentmoats. These are the counties where many banks will advice you to place a Unit Trust Investment with them. However with the market now, I will recommend you take a wait and see attitude till the market calms down.

Jade Technologies Holdings

The 51 per cent drop in the share price of leadframes manufacturer, commodities & resources trader and real estate developer, Jade Technologies Holdings, since mid-October 2007 from 40.5 cents prompted group president and non-executive director Anthony Soh Guan Cheow to acquire an initial 5.5 million shares (direct) last Monday at 20 cents each. Mr Soh also has deemed interest of 445.7 million shares or 45.97 per cent of the issued capital.
The purchase was made after the group, along with listed firm E3 Holdings, announced that they would acquire a 49 per cent stake in oil refinery and 100 per cent stake in a 3 km land parcel in Jilin Province in mainland China. The purchase by Mr Soh was the first on-market trade by a director or substantial shareholder in Jade Technologies since July 2007.
The stock closed sharply lower at 12 cents on Friday.

UOB Kay Hian Holdings

Chairman and managing director Wee Ee Chao recorded his first trade in investment holding firm UOB Kay Hian Holdings in the past five years, with 1.29 million shares purchased last Tuesday and Wednesday at $1.74 each. The trade increased his deemed holdings to 117.9 million shares or 16.3 per cent. The rare acquisitions were made on the back of the 29 per cent drop in the share price since November 2007, from $2.42.
The chairman's purchases were significant as they were made at sharply higher than his sale prices in 2003. He previously sold 5.8 million shares from August to December 2003 at an average of 89 cents each. Those sales in 2003 were made at a profit based on the 2.7 million shares that he acquired in 2002 at an average of 65 cents each. The fact that he turned from a seller in 2003 to a buyer five years later at a sharply higher price indicates strongly that the stock is undervalued at $1.74 each. The stock closed higher from the chairman's last purchase price to $1.84 on Friday.

ArianeCorp

CEO Kea Kah Kim has reduced his stake in ultra high-capacity data networks provider ArianeCorp by 39.4 million shares or 39 per cent, after the stock fell by 47 per cent from 7.5 cents on Dec 28, 2007. The disposal was made last Monday at four cents each, which lowered his deemed holdings to 62.5 million shares or 8.2 per cent. The sale was made at sharply lower than his previous on-market purchase price, based on the five million shares that he bought from November to December 2004 at an average of 13.9 cents each. The stock has fallen sharply since January last year, from 13 cents to 3.5 cents on Friday.

LottVision

Legg Mason Inc ceased to be a substantial shareholder of digital video designer, developer and distributor, LottVision, on Jan 18 following the sale of 15 million shares at an estimated price of 15.5 cents each. The trade reduced its deemed holdings by 38 per cent - to 24.3 million shares or 4.9 per cent. The group lowered its interest to below 5 per cent on the back of the steep decline in the share price since July 2007, from 69 cents. Not surprisingly, Legg Mason's sale was made at sharply below its open-market purchase prices from April to August last year.The counter closed lower compared to Legg Mason's exit price at 13 cents on Friday.

I have change the blog template. Hope you guys like the new blog design.

China Oilfield Technology

We visited China Oilfield Technology (COT) recently to have a look at its operations. Crude oil prices have receded, but are at prices where enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques remain feasible. Specifically, EOR will have a starring role as the Chinese economy struggles for energy independence and addresses the mismatch between strong demand and peaking domestic supply. As a proven and major EOR player in a key domestic oil region, the potential for COT's business remains intact.

Current Price: S$0.49
Fair Value: S$1.01

M1

M1 posts 4.8% fall in Q4 net profit to $37.9m. MOBILEONE yesterday reported a 4.8 per cent fall in net profit to $37.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2007 as it spent more on keeping its customers and on higher staff costs. The smallest of three telcos here said that full 2007 net profit was up 4.4 per cent to $171.8 million. The fourth-quarter net profit missed the $41.3 million median estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Q4 revenues rose 2.9 per cent to $206.9 million. M1 announced a final dividend of 8.3 cents, bringing the total payout (including a capital distribution) to 15.4 cents for the year, representing an 8 per cent yield based on the $1.92 closing price yesterday. Chief executive Neil Montefiore said that it had been a tough quarter, and 2008 would be even more challenging. Although its customer base rose 14.8 per cent to 1.54 million, market share fell to 27.4 per cent at the end of November from 28.3 per cent in August and 28.5 per cent in November 2006.

Current Price:S$1.92
Fair Value: S$2.33

Centraland Limited

The Company is a premium brand property developer in Zhengzhou City, the provincial capital of Henan Province, which is one of the most populated provinces in PRC. It is principally engaged in the development and sale of residential and commercial properties.

5m Offer shares at S$0.50 each by public offer
240m Placement shares at S$0.50 each.
Issue Manager: Boulton Capital Asia Pte Ltd
Underwriter and Placement Agent: UOB Kay Hian
Closing date: 30 January 2008, 12pm.

SGX listed peers:

Yanlord Land has a current market cap of $4.8b on SGX and is considered one of the top property developer in China with strong foothold in key cities. FY06: Sales $952m, net income $170m, EPS 11.36 cents.

China Yuanbang has a current market cap of $201 million. FYJun 07: Sales S$67m, net income $15.6m, EPS 3.1 cents.

Sunshine Holdings has a market cap of $158m. FY06: Sales $119m, net income $30m, EPS 3.8c
Landbank 840,000 sqm.

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(Prospectus)

Source: Singapore IPO