AIO Finance Analysis

DBS ($17.90) was $16.74 then and has also overshot our $18 sell target reaching $18.46. It should find support around $17.50 now and could test the latest highs soon.
UOB ($18.20) was $17.04 and rallied to $18.50 this week. Support is now around $17.70.
SGX ($9.08) remains a tricky stock as it held up well at $8.80-$9 that time but rebounded to only $9.50-65, indicating heightened market uncertainties. It should be a buy around $8.80-90.

Keppel ($10.44) dipped below our $9.80-$10 support to $9.76 and has moved back to old $10.70-$11 support. Buying on weakness towards $10.20 is called for as it could move back to $11.
City ($11.74) was picked at $11.26 and rallied to $12.38 with new higher support now at $11.50-60 and it should rally back to near $12.50 by the results release in a week’s time.
SIA ($15.56) was at $15.26 then, moving up to $16.18 and should continue to be well support at $15.-$15.20. Rebounds to above $16 call for profit-taking.
Source: AMFRASER

I came across this article from MyPaper reporting on Unit Trust. I thought why not share it on my blog. Similarly, DWS Global Agribusiness, unit trust from DBS caught my eye. The Fund invests in opportunities at various points along the “food chain” ranging from agricultural commodities to consumer products. Areas include land and plantation, seed and fertiliser, protecting and irrigation, food processing and manufacturing companies. With the exception of cotton, all other soft commodities went up again in November.Oil prices nearing USD 100 per barrel was one of the reasons for further food inflation. Other funds recommended by MyPaper includes
1. Legg Mason Singapore Bond Fund
2. Lion Capital Team Singapore Fixed Income Investment Class
3. A Henderson Global Bond Fund
4. ING Singapore DollarBond Fund
5. UOB Global Bond Fund


MyPaper Report
It was a less-than-positive start to the new year, with oil prices hitting US$100 per barrel and a weak job market outlook heightening the fears of a United States recession. A sell-off in equities and lower bond yields have caused bonds to outperform equities.

Singapore bond funds performed better because they were largely overweight on Government bonds which carried good credit ratings and were more focused compared to more diversified global bond funds. Would bonds continue to perform better than equities? It is still unclear as the outlook for equities is still uncertain in the near term.

For now, investment in bonds is still recommended for three reasons.
First, we are starting to see Main Street (the investing public) being affected by Wall Street. Weak job numbers and the fall in ISM (Institute for Supply Management) non-manufacturing data showed that the US economy had slowed down sharply from December to January, and it was clear that the financial market turmoil which
began in the housing market had affected the broader economy.

Second, it is not clear whether US housing market has bottomed out yet. Housing grew at about 1.006 million units per month in December, a new-low since late 2005 and the lowest in 17 years. Housing permits and existing home sales continued to form new lows in December 2007 since their descent in 2005. Sub-prime foreclosures as a ratio over total loans have also been increasing since 2005. These numbers suggest that the US housing industry is weak. Lastly, the effects of the US Economic Stimulus package will be felt only in the second half of this year. The package to stimulate the economy is great – consumer cash rebates, business incentives and easing on home loan limits – but the easing of loan limits will take effect next month and the cash rebates will be in the mail only by May. Until then, the economy might not feel the full impact of the economic stimulus.

For now, we favour bonds over equities as the outlook for the latter is still unclear. Investors with spare cash could consider high-quality fixed income securities such as European sovereigns as it is likely that the European Central Bank might reduce rates. Or they could wait until the market bottoms out before investing in equities. In the long term, the outlook for emerging markets is still promising, so don’t panic.

Source: MyPaper

Samko Timber IPO. (from Extraordinary Profits)
Closing date of application: 21 February 2008
Commencement of trading: 25 February 2008

Established in the 1978, Samko Timber is a leading Indonesian timber processing company and one of the top 5 tropical hardwood plywood producers globally.

They have approx. 450,000 ha of natural forest concessions and approx. 125,000 ha of industrial forest plantations.

Their production facilities include:
• 7 timber processing plants
• 1 fibreboard production plant
• 10 satellite veneer plants
• 1 power plant
• 2 chemical glue facilities
Their products include:
• Primary and secondary processed timber products
• Harvested logs
• Chemical glues of several types and grades
Financial figures

Intended IPO price: $0.55
No. of shares available for public offer: 3m
No. of shares available for placement offer: 180m
Total post invitation share capital: Approx. 684.6m

Conclusion:
Some investors have an aversion to Indonesian stocks because of the political and natural instability suffered by the country. Samko has a profit margin of only 3.1% - i.e. for every $100 of revenue they only earn $3.10 of profit. Considering those factors, I would prefer to avoid this IPO. Probability of getting allotted for the IPO - VERY LOW


Click here for prospectus
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Source: Extraordinary Profits

STI range bound from 2650 to 3300 - Sell into strength near 3280

We continue to believe that the 2650 level represents a ‘worst case’ scenario for the FTSE ST Index while rebound upside is capped at 3300. Our base case scenario is for the US economy to slow down to as low as 1% growth during 1H before picking up to 2.5% in 2H.

A range bound pattern between 2650 to 3300 should develop in coming month(s) until data shows the effect of the 125bps by the FED and the US stimulus package filtering down into the economy. Click below for more


Click Here for More
Source: Extraordinary Profits